Ukraine’s difficulties over the past six months in its ongoing war against Russia are a direct consequence of long-delayed US military equipment support, it is understood, with Russian forces continuing in their push westwards.
Following the capture of Avdiivka earlier this year and Bakhmut in 2023, Russian forces are now looking to seize the town of Chasiv Yar, some 5km to the west of Bakhmut. The seizure of the town, while still offering only a tactical rather than strategic victory for Russia at this point, could open up new routes north and south along the H20 highway.
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By GlobalDataStarved of the vital US military support package, which was passed earlier this week by the US administration after months of wrangling between Democrat and Republican lawmakers of domestic concessions, Ukrainian forces have been unable to sustain defensive operations across the frontline.
It is understood that despite the passing of the multi-billion-dollar US assistance package, Ukraine will likely face a difficult next three months as the shift of the seasons favours combat operations, with more daylight hours and drier ground conditions. Ukraine’s forces are known to be short of ammunition, including vital 155mm artillery shells.
A US Pentagon spokesperson, speaking on 25 April said that it was “a tough situation right now in Ukraine”, adding that the US was committed to sustaining its support “for the long haul”.
Ukraine lower conscription age: what will the UK do?
Ukraine meanwhile has struggled to obtain the manpower required to sustain their combat operations, as losses continue to mount. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has passed a decree lowering the age of conscription from 27 down to 25 years of age.
Additionally, Ukraine has suspended consular services for military-age men living overseas, while some countries, including Poland and Lithuania, have already confirmed that they could assist in ensuring Ukrainian males are returned to home to complete compulsory military service.
A total of 282,655 Ukraine visa scheme grants have been awarded by the UK Government since 2022, with around 197,000 Ukrainian’s having arrived through the Ukrainian family or sponsorship schemes.
UK Government data stated that by March 2023, Ukrainian adult males aged 18 to 64 accounted for 18% of the total number of those granted entry to the UK via the two schemes. Although the exact number of conscript age males is not available, it is likely that it will number in the thousands.
US military assistance on the move: but from where?
The passing of the US assistance has meant that stockpiles of munitions thought to be prepositioned in Europe have now been released to Ukraine. Rzeszów airport, located near the Poland’s border with Ukraine, is a known transshipment hub of war materiel.
The US Pentagon spokesperson declined to confirm whether prepositioned stocks were being sent into Ukraine, stating that critical materiel such as ammunition would likely be provided faster that other equipment.
“We’ve already started the process to move some of the weapons, ammunition and equipment which will be, you know, as I mentioned earlier there within days, if not sooner,” the spokesperson said.
Meanwhile, the UK Government has also provided its latest estimates of Russian losses in terms of manpower and equipment in Ukraine, detailing on 26 April that approximately 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded, and tens of thousands more have already deserted since the start of the conflict.
This figure does not include the losses sustained from private military companies, such as the infamous Wagner Group, during more than two years of combat.
“We also estimate that over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles, including nearly 3,000 main battle tanks, 109 fixed wing aircraft, 136 helicopters, 346 unmanned aerial vehicles, 23 naval vessels of all classes, and over 1,500 artillery systems of all types have been destroyed, abandoned, or captured by Ukraine since the start of the conflict,” stated Leo Docherty, UK Minister of State for the Armed Forces.
