With voting nearing conclusion in the knife-edge US presidential election that will determine the country’s political direction for the majority of what is left of the 2020s, the implications for global security, and in particular Ukraine, remain in the balance.
Whether Republican Presidential Donald Trump returns to the office he occupied from 2017 to 2021, or Kamala Harris succeeds the outgoing President Joe Biden on the Democrat ticket, the impact on defence and foreign policy will be significant, for different reasons.
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By GlobalDataFor Trump, it will be a return to strong-man politics and a return to isolationism and protectionism, with the biggest loser likely to be Ukraine as US support for Kyiv, certainly in its current scale, will come to a halt.
Harris has committed to sustaining support for Ukraine as it battles Russia, although 2024 has offered little solace for Ukrainian forces that find themselves, for the most part, on the back foot.
Although supposed to remain apolitical in so far as the outcome of the US election, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has courted controversy for his attendance at events in the US that, to some observers, pointed towards a preference for Harris over Trump. A hastily organised meeting between Zelensky and Trump did little to dispel sceptics.
US accounts for over 50% of military aid to Ukraine
According to the US Department of Defense, since August 2021, around six months before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the US has provided 67 separate tranches of military equipment from its own inventories to Kyiv. The total value of security assistance is valued at approximately $59.1bn since February 2022.
On the other side of the Atlantic, member states of the European Union have cumulatively provided €43.5bn ($47.5bn) in military support, while the UK has contributed an additional £7.8bn ($10.1bn) in military support.
All told, this means the US has contributed more than 50% of the total value of military and security aid to Ukraine, a gap that the European Union will be unable to fill in the event of a Trump presidency and anticipated cessation of US assistance.
Ukraine: strategic insight
Analysis conducted by analytics and intelligence company GlobalData in its ‘Strategic Intelligence: US Elections 2024 Executive Briefing’ paper states that a ‘Trump 2.0’ presidency would “focus on tax cuts and tough protectionist policies affecting the economy, climate, social security, border security, and foreign affairs”.
A Harris administration would centre on small businesses and large infrastructure projects to drive the US economy, which is judged to be “resilient” to the outcome of the election, forwards.
GlobalData assesses that in other areas of foreign policy, such as China, will continue down a decoupling path no matter the outcome of the US election, as the US moves to reorient itself to counter a China that sees Washington as a rival superpower.
A divided Congress is also another factor to consider, which will continue to make it difficult for any new administration to pursue agendas without significant obstacles.
GlobalData’s briefing paper is explicit on the risks to Ukraine for a Trump presidency, stating that Kyiv may be forced to enter negotiations with Russia, an eventuality that would result in the loss of vast swathes of the east and southeastern areas of Ukraine currently under occupation.
Ukraine’s autumn push into Kursk, seizing a small area of Russia itself, is intended to secure a bargaining chip for Kyiv in any negotiations with Moscow, although current operations in the region have squeezed Ukrainian forces and could dislodge them entirely from Russian territory.
Russia meanwhile continues its slow, methodical, and bloody battles of attrition across eastern Ukraine, emboldened by new munitions, drones, and troops it is receiving from countries such as China, North Korea, and Iran.
Air raid warning sirens continue to impact daily life even in areas far from the frontline in western Ukraine, as witnessed by this correspondent in Lviv in September.
