As the US finally gives Ukraine permission to use long-range strike munitions it had provided for strikes inside Russian territory, attention have turned to the specific capabilities provided, including the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missile.
Although not listed as a munition provided to Ukraine by the US Department of Defense (DoD), it is widely known that the Pentagon has provided an undisclosed number of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.
Officials had spent most of 2024 responding to queries about restriction for their use, with a DoD spokesperson on 12 July stating that the Pentagon was “always mindful of escalation”, which appeared to be the primary reason for the ban on long-rang strikes by Ukraine inside Russia using ATACMS.
“[US President Joe Biden] spoke to this directly [on 11 July], our policy has not changed,” the DoD spokesperson said. “Right now, we have not authorised the use of ATACMS for deep strike capabilities within Russia.”
Donald Trump’s dramatic re-election to the White House could well be the catalyst that has caused such a change in policy.
ATACMS: area of effect weapon
According to manufacturer Lockheed Martin, the ATACMS is a “long-range, guided missile” packaged in a pod to enable firing from the MLRS family of launchers, such as the M142 HIMARS or M270 systems.
The pod is configured to appear to carry a standard MLRS payload from the M26 or M28 family of munitions in order to avoid enemy combatants gaining an understanding of individual platform capabilities. A singe ATACMS missile occupies each MLRS pod.
The ballistic missile contains improved guidance with an internal navigation system with GPS capability, and carries a WDU18, 500lb (230kg) blast fragmentation warhead, with a maximum range of 300km.
According to US Army analysis in 2013, a 113kg blast fragmentation warhead, roughly half of what is fitted to the ATACMS, will have an average hazardous fragmentation distance of 304 metres. In doubling the explosive yield, with potential for airburst options depending on fuze settings, the area of effect of an ATACMS missile could be several hundred metres.
More than 400 ATACMS munitions were on contract in the 2020 financial year, Lockheed Martin stated at the time, with production deals valued at $426m.
It is likely that ATACMS missiles will be used to strike military sites inside Russia, such as ammunition and supply depots, which have been a prime target for Ukrainian long-range suicide drones.
The large explosive yield and likely area of effect being in excess of 500m, any use of ATACMS will need to be carefully calculated to negate the potential for civilian casualties.
