The potential loss of Ukraine’s gains in Russia’s Kursk Oblast will prove fatal to any future negotiating position with the aggressor.

Kursk sits at the heart of Ukraine’s so-called ‘Victory Plan’, drafted in a very different political landscape in the weeks leading up to the US election last week. The second point in the plan aims to shore-up a “buffer zone” in Kursk from where Ukrainian forces will destroy as much war potential as possible, including airstrips, bridges and production sites inside Russia.

Now, Ukraine’s grasp over the salient will prove detrimental following the return of the US President-elect Donald Trump to the White House.

It is believed that a new Trump administration – eager to end the conflict, even if it means conceding Ukrainian territory to Russia – will pressure Ukraine to retain what little leverage they can ahead of future discussions.

Major General Pat Ryder, a leading US Department of Defense spokesperson, assured the press that the Northern theatre still hangs in the balance, describing Russian gains as “incremental” on 12 November 2024.

However, the Ukrainian defensive line is said to have receded by a third of the original 900 square kilometres according to a source in October.

Russian plans to retake Kursk

The Institute for the Study of War indicated that Russia’s response to the Kursk incursion has not represented a significant inflection, even now. A rough estimate says that Russia has concentrated 50,000 personnel, including 8-10,000 North Korean troops more recently, to retake Kursk.

Especially after geopolitical developments this past week, there is currently no strategic imperative for Russia to re-direct its efforts from Eastern Ukraine, where marginal gains are slowly becoming operationally significant, particularly in the Donbas around the town of Pokrovsk.

Although, that does not mean a sufficient Russian counter-offensive is not expected in the coming weeks or months, but likely before the end of January 2025 as the winter period wanes.

The Russians can now afford to take their time politically as well. The longer the war drags on throughout this winter, the more Ukraine will be deprived of its resources when they enter a new year with a new US administration unwilling to provide the level of military assistance that President Joe Biden has issued over the past four years.

As of 1 November, US security assistance to Ukraine is valued at $61bn since the Biden administration took office, and $60.4bn since Russia’s unlawful invasion began on 24 February 2022.

“It is important to remember that Donald Trump is not president yet. There are still more than two months for President Biden to secure his place in history by taking decisive steps to support Ukraine,” commented Kira Rudik, a Ukrainian member of parliament and Golos Party leader.

“This could include lifting restrictions on missile strikes inside Russia, or inviting Ukraine to join Nato” – two hot issues that the US has avoided.