In a newly published report, Ukraine: A Wake-Up Call, the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee issues a stark warning about the state of the UK’s military readiness.
The report criticises NATO’s and the UK's failure to deter Russia’s aggression, emphasising the need for urgent reform in the UK’s defence posture and spending strategy.
In the 26 September 2024, report, the Committee identifies significant gaps in the UK's military capabilities, highlighting shortcomings exposed by the ongoing war in Ukraine. According to Lord de Mauley, Chair of the Committee, “The invasion exposed significant weaknesses in both the UK’s and Nato’s military strength, and the UK's ability to sustain large-scale warfare.”
The report stresses that without decisive action, the UK will struggle to meet future security challenges.The decisions made in the forthcoming Strategic Defence Review (SDR) will determine whether the UK can continue to play a leading role in Nato, with decisive action required to close the gaps in its military preparedness and strengthen the UK’s defences.
In summarising the Committee’s conclusions, Lord de Mauley stated: “Given the perilous threat environment, the Government must not miss this chance and must commit to spending more on defence and spending better.”
Failures in deterrence and military readiness
The Committee calls for an urgent reassessment of the UK's deterrence strategy, noting the failure to prevent Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Traditional methods of deterrence—such as military posturing and reliance on nuclear capabilities—are no longer effective against modern hybrid threats. The report demands a deeper understanding of Russia's motivations and urges Nato to adapt to the new realities of warfare.
This need for adaptation extends to the state of the UK’s military itself. The report warns that the British Army is too small to meet its NATO obligations, with only 73,000 active personnel and a lack of essential equipment. The Committee recommends increasing the size of the Army and addressing recruitment and retention issues while reinvigorating the Reserves to provide additional mass and resilience.
Defence industry and procurement failures
The report also criticises the state of the UK’s defence industry, describing it as unprepared for sustained conflict. Years of underinvestment and poor government-industry relations have led to stagnation. The Committee calls for the government to foster trust with the defence sector and provide long-term commitments, which would allow for risk-taking and increased production capacity.
Procurement reform is highlighted as critical. The current system, which is characterised as too slow and risk-averse, needs to be overhauled. The Committee recommends working with non-traditional suppliers such as start-ups and tech companies to drive innovation in defence technology.
Air superiority and homeland defence
The report stresses the importance of air superiority in modern conflict, citing the role air defences have played in Ukraine. The Committee urges the UK to prioritise investment in integrated air and missile defence systems, which are essential for maintaining NATO’s collective security.
In light of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure (CNI), the UK is directed to take on shortfalls in its homeland defence. The report warns that the UK is vulnerable to similar hybrid and cyber threats. To address this, the government needs to launch a whole-of-government effort to build resilience and protect the nation's CNI.
Broader geopolitical concerns and Global Britain
As global tensions rise—with growing military power in China, the Middle East in turmoil, and Russia continuing its aggression—the report emphasises the importance of reinforcing Nato ties and securing European defence. The need to shore up European security, especially given the UK's current vulnerabilities, is a central theme in the Committee report. The House of Lords report reflects concerns that the UK could be outpaced by nations such as Poland, South Korea, and Japan, which have ramped up their military spending in response to growing threats.
Budgetary constraints and the Strategic Defence Review
A major obstacle facing the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is the reported £20 billion shortfall in public finances, which puts further pressure on the already strained defence budget. Many analysts worry that key defence programmes could be scaled back or delayed. The fear is that without a clear investment plan, the UK’s ability to modernise its forces and meet Nato commitments could be jeopardised.
The upcoming SDR, expected to be completed in the first half of 2025, is a pivotal moment for the new government. The House of Lords report stresses that defence spending must be prioritised to address immediate security needs while ensuring the long-term sustainability of the UK's military forces, and the SDR will need to balance fiscal challenges with the necessity of maintaining a credible deterrence posture.
