Europe countries are already living in a “grey zone between peace and war” as the threat posed by Russia continues to shape a new reality within the borders of the continent and beyond.
Participating in an on the record panel discussion at the Chatham House Security and Defence conference on 6 March 2025, Karolis Aleksa, Lithuanian Vice Minister of National Defence, told delegates that the Ukraine-Russia war, and its ongoing fallout, was a defining moment in European history.
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“We are already in the grey zone between peace and war,” Aleksa said, stating that a medium-term expectation was that Russian President Vladimir Putin could “be ready for some action against the West” within the next five years.
Aleksa added that Lithuania was looking to increase defence spending from its current level of 4% of GDP, up to 5-6% in 2026.
In recent days the European Commission announced plans to loosen fiscal restraints of European Union member states to enable a greater defence spending, part of a call to re-arm the continent.
Meanwhile, recent events from the new administration in Washington has placed renewed focus on the role that Europe has to play in ensuring its own security, with the US less inclined to defend its traditional allies as it seeks to accommodate and deal with Russia.
Indeed, Washington voted against the UK and other European countries in a recent UN Security Council session on the Ukraine war, siding with the likes of North Korea, Russia, and Iran.
The US was “badly needed” in Europe, said Aleksa, stating it would be “a crack in our defences” if the transatlantic alliance between Washington and Europe was not maintained.
The comments came as Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UK, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, speaking on the same panel, raised eyebrows in stating that Washington’s actions were “destroying” the “de-facto” world order.
“In near future Nato likewise will stop existing,” Zaluzhnyi warned. “The White House makes steps towards the Kremlin, meeting them halfway.”
Referencing the decision by Ukraine to surrender nuclear warheads it had inherited from the defunct Soviet Union in the 1990s, Zaluzhnyi said Ukraine was “paying for its freedom in blood”.
In recent days, it has also emerged that the US has paused the intelligence sharing with Ukraine, which could impact Kyiv’s ability to command its forces in the battlefield.
The US has also ordered the cessation of all military cyber operations against the Russian state and paused all military assistance to Kyiv.
US making same mistakes as Taliban deal
The fact that US President Donald Trump sought to create a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by freezing out Kyiv and European countries and dealing directly with Moscow also risks mirroring the mistakes that Washington made in its 2021 deal with the Taliban to secure a US exit from Afghanistan.
At that time, President Joe Biden opted to do a deal only with the Taliban, eschewing any notions of collaborative talks including the Afghan government or Nato allies that had supported Washington’s overthrow of the Taliban regime in 2001.
“President Trump may be going down a similar path… [it] shows US weakness in face of Russian aggression,” said Lisa Curtis, senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Programme.
The US-Taliban deal quickly saw the overthrow of the Afghan government in Kabul and the reinstallation of a hardline Islamic regime.
“When the US goes alone, it loses,” Curtis said.
