Since the start of the Russia/Ukraine war, and notably in the early summer of 2024, numerous conflict experts have called for Ukraine to enter a negotiated settlement with Russia.
The arguments have varied in scope and evolved as Ukraine’s footing in the war has fluctuated, but advocates for a negotiation typically urge that Ukraine cede land in exchange for security guarantees. While, of course, the world wants to see a peaceful and swift resolution to this conflict, both sides have strategic considerations that will prevent them from even engaging in any such talks — barring any major offensive breakthroughs by either side.
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Russia arguably has more reasons to think it should continue to prosecute its illegal invasion of Ukraine. Despite suffering more than 1,000 daily military casualties in the summer of 2024 — the highest figures since the war began—it is still unlikely to enter serious negotiations with Ukraine before the year ends.
More than 500,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in Ukraine
The overall casualty figures are equally astounding; in July 2024, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Britain’s Chief of Defence Staff, claimed that more than 500,000 Russians have been killed or wounded since the start of the war. There should be little doubt that Russian civilians are feeling the emotional and economic costs of prosecuting this war, yet the iron grip of Russian autocracy enables the fighting to grind on.
Public support for the war is bolstered by Russia’s propaganda machine and dissent against the regime or its conflict is not tolerated. Such strong control over the populace and lack of vocal criticism permits Russian President Putin to wait to see if former President Trump will return to power. Under these circumstances, Putin will hope that President Trump will be unwilling to provide further military aid to Ukraine, since the former US leader has been open about his disapproval of the $107 billion spent by the United States to aid the country’s fight for independence.
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At the same time, Ukraine’s concerns about its sovereignty have kept the country’s leadership away from the negotiating table. Moreover, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have sufficient manpower and materiel to continue the fight for the foreseeable future. Despite high casualties, public support for the war within Ukraine remains high. Though Ukraine desperately wants the war to end, it will not engage in peace talks that do not ensure an independent future with serious security guarantees. Thus far, the Russian government has not been willing to entertain any such plans, and therefore the Ukrainians continue to battle to save their homeland from illegal occupation or annexation.
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By GlobalDataOffensive successes have boosted Ukrainian morale
Patriotism is not the only factor that encourages Ukrainians to keep up the fight, however. Recent reporting has uncovered the numerous challenges that the Ukrainian armed forces have imposed on the Russian military in recent weeks and months. When Putin appointed an economist as his new defence minister in the spring of 2024, it led analysts to question the strength and stability of Russia’s supply chains and defence industrial capacity. Ukraine’s new ability to strike targets in Russian territory has permitted their armed forces to destroy an ammunition storage depot and other sites. Offensive operations such as these will boost Ukrainian morale and encourage the leadership to press on with their efforts.
To end a war without total victory, all sides must be willing to engage in serious negotiations that will somewhat satisfy the wishes of the opposition. This is complicated by the view that Russia would aim to pursue a settlement that allows it to regroup and restart its invasion from a better position, while Ukraine would aim to pursue a settlement that ensures another invasion can be deterred. Such aims are irreconcilable, further discouraging the two sides from sitting down with one another.
If America does not elect a president who is willing to continue its decades-long investment in European security, it will need to prepare its defence industry to reckon with a world that is more firmly controlled by autocrats on the march over multiple continents. Meanwhile, European states will need to increase the production capacity of already overwhelmed defence supply chains to support Ukraine and nearby states, particularly the Baltics and Poland. Neither Russia nor Ukraine sees much advantage in ending the war swiftly, so the demand for military aid and the cost in human lives will continue.
