Donald Trump has been elected the 47th president of the US, in part by promising an isolationist agenda and an end to the wars abroad. Even so, President Trump’s foreign policy views are not known for predictability, and while the incoming president’s ‘America First’ perspective would imply a cutoff of arms transfers, he may be unwilling or unable to drastically alter its financial and strategic commitments in various parts of the world.

The Biden administration spent tens of billions of dollars supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s brutal war of aggression. Now, under President Trump, America’s future with Ukraine has become more difficult to predict, especially when this relationship is compared with that with Taiwan or Israel. Since the end of the Second World War, America has sought to push back against leaders who would conquer their neighbours by force. In contrast, President Trump never argued that it is important to support Ukraine ‘as long as it takes,’ and has instead called for an immediate end to the fighting. Ukraine will struggle to keep up its fight against Russia if President Trump does indeed decide to stop the delivery of military aid, so Ukraine’s fate rests in great part on Trump’s ability to negotiate a settlement between Putin and Zelenskyy. Despite President-elect Trump’s aversion to spending on allies, he may struggle with the certain realities of continued violence and unrest in occupied Ukraine even after a possible nominal ‘ceasefire’. Ukraine has put up a tough fight for the past 2.5 years – if its forces collapse now, President Trump will be blamed by many for ‘losing Ukraine.’ Helping Ukraine to win its struggle with more arms transfers may come with an initial cost, but if President Trump cannot successfully negotiate a settlement, he may fear the political consequences of a conquered Kyiv.

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Of course, details of a settlement remain scarce, and time is of the essence if he does indeed aspire to limit Putin’s territorial ambitions. If President Trump hopes to avoid blame for a loss in Eastern Europe, he will need to produce a high-quality deal that strengthens Ukraine’s future with security guarantees that deter Russia from future invasions. Despite a threat to his popularity, he and his supporters may very well decide that Ukraine’s fate is irrelevant to America’s future.

While President-elect Trump will attempt to implement an ‘America First’ agenda, this will not mean pursuing a set of policies that put ‘Asia last’. Already, speculation is growing that substantial arms agreements between the US and Taiwan will emerge quickly, and Taiwan is expected to boost its defence spending significantly, even exceeding the current 2.7% of gross domestic product that leading data and analytics company GlobalData forecasts for 2025. Moreover, the Trump administration will continue the trend of both parties since the late Obama era of managing a strategic competition with China. A top priority for this will be maintaining freedom of navigation, which means continued access to the Taiwan Strait. Furthermore, even if a Republican Congress were to repeal the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors and Science Act, which has contributed to rising domestic chip manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s position on the island will remain a factor for continued naval presence. Shielding Taiwanese democracy and human rights concerns may take a backseat in the second Trump administration, but allowing China to ‘take’ the island will make President Trump look weak on China in the eyes of many across the globe.

It also appears unlikely that US aid to Israel will decrease in the second Trump administration, as securing Israel’s position in the Middle East was an early priority. Despite cuts to other parts of the federal budget, the Trump administration did not decrease contributions to Israel, the largest recipient of foreign aid, in its 2020 budget proposal that allocated $3.3bn to the country. President Trump’s close relationship with Prime Minister Netanyahu increases the likelihood that the US will transfer weapons and defence systems to its regional ally. Indeed, President Trump will want to further bolster Israel’s defences as it continues in what may become a more protracted struggle with the Islamic Republic of Iran.

While promising an end to global chaos may suggest a decline in arms sales, President-elect Trump is unlikely to pursue an agenda that would label him a dove. Even if aid declines in some parts of the world such as Ukraine, they are likely to continue or increase in others such as Saudi Arabia and the Philippines. If his campaign promises are any guide, the second Trump administration is likely to dramatically raise tensions with Nato allies and Ukraine while providing support to those who show him favour or advance the strategic competition with China.

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