Given just how vocal democratic world leaders have been in their support for Ukraine, one would expect they would express their exasperation over President Trump’s claim that Ukraine began the war and his decision to stop sharing military intelligence and aid with Ukraine’s fighting forces. Yet, around the world, leaders have largely shied away from revealing their fury. In particular, the meeting between President Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer went smoothly, with the PM even offering an invitation for a second state visit from the monarch—marking the first time a US president has ever received a second invitation.
Why then, given their differences about who started Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression in Ukraine and many other issues, did Starmer and Trump share such a pleasant meeting? Precisely because these leaders know that Trump is prone to change his mind, they hope he may reconsider who is at fault for starting this war. While Oval Office back and forths may make for ‘great television’ (as President Trump said of his contentious meeting with Zelenskyy), leaders know that repeatedly engaging in such behaviour will only more firmly set the president against their cause. Instead, of mean tweets and meaner meetings, democratic leaders are keeping their fingers crossed that Trump’s behaviour will change with the weather.
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Furthermore, they know the United States is the only single actor that can give the Ukrainians the military aid they need to make a meaningful impact in this fight. While the UK and the EU have given a substantial amount of military aid to Ukraine, they will have a difficult time closing the gap that would emerge in the case that US assistance is permanently turned off. The roughly $70bn in military aid provided to the government of Ukraine has been a great investment for the US defence industry, the Ukrainian soldiers using American weaponry to defend their way of life, and even the American people. Sticking Ukraine with a deal that does not guarantee its security will not serve anyone at home or abroad—that is, except for Putin.
President Zelenskyy has given in to President Trump’s demand to agree to a ceasefire. Thus begins the moment of truth for these leaders—and the action is out of their hands. Now, the world watches to see the Kremlin’s response to this same request. The major expectation is that Putin, as the architect of the war, will not demonstrate a commitment to ending the bloodshed because believes he can win in the long run or at least have more concessions granted. If that is the major expectation, the major hope is this will cause the Trump administration to turn its ire away from Ukraine and toward Russia.
It is not fully clear how the Trump administration would respond to a Russian refusal or delay, but early signals indicate additional sanctions and economic pressures will be placed on the Kremlin for lack of compliance. Financial punishment has emerged as a favourite tactic of the new administration, but it will not be enough for Western leaders. If Russia baulks, expect Starmer and others to “politely” speak out and request the United States to do more to support Ukraine. Should the US respond to a Russian refusal with any punishment for Russia or support for Ukraine, expect Zelenskyy to publicly say thank you to the United States while breathing a sigh of relief that the intelligence sharing and military aid hasn’t been shut down.
To be sure, not every democratic country has played nice with President Trump. Indeed, Canadian politicians are practically stepping on one another to express their fury over his trade war and attempts to coerce the northern neighbour to become the 51st state in the union. With Canadian elections set for this year, party leaders are attempting to demonstrate that they will stand up to the president’s talk on tariffs and annexation. Canada isn’t alone, as Trump’s tariff threats have had a remarkably limited effect on President Sheinbaum of Mexico. So far, she has maintained one of the highest favorability ratings of any leader in the world while repeatedly delaying President Trump’s tariff agenda.
In time, particularly if the Trump administration aligns itself more closely with the land-grabbing agendas of our world’s autocrats, democratic leaders may decide enough is enough. For now, however, Starmer and continental leaders know that Ukraine’s position becomes much more perilous without American support. These key figures will play nice for as long as they can because angering the Trump administration is akin to biting the one hand that *might* still feed Ukraine a full meal.
